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Applying Monte Carlo Analysis – uncertainty and risk

Applying Monte Carlo Analysis – uncertainty and risk

Second analysis – duration uncertainty and risk

After adding in the risks the analysis is a re-run based on these risks and the duration uncertainty as before, and a new output is produced – see below

As with the activities that have most influence on this outcome, as seen in the diagram below the risks can also be displayed in a tornado chart also displayed below.

Again, it is worth assessing the credibility of these results prior to producing and publishing a QSRA report.

qsra_probability Monte Carlo Analysis

Above is the QSRA probability distribution chart

….and this is the Full QSRA Tornado Chart:

full_tornado Monte Carlo Analysis

 

Reporting

A suggested report format would include the following:

  • Commentary on the scope of the QSRA
  • Notes on the method adopted so that the process and inputs are made clear
  • List of participants and their involvement
  • The results in graphical form and with written interpretation
  • Recommended actions that should mitigate any concerns raised in order to deliver the most effective project possible
  • Appendices of duration uncertainty is and the risk register, considered with details of the risk modeling – which risks allocated to which activities, distribution type, the minimum, maximum and most likely values

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