Applying Monte Carlo Analysis – uncertainty and risk
Second analysis – duration uncertainty and risk
After adding in the risks the analysis is a re-run based on these risks and the duration uncertainty as before, and a new output is produced – see below
As with the activities that have most influence on this outcome, as seen in the diagram below the risks can also be displayed in a tornado chart also displayed below.
Again, it is worth assessing the credibility of these results prior to producing and publishing a QSRA report.
Above is the QSRA probability distribution chart
….and this is the Full QSRA Tornado Chart:
A suggested report format would include the following:
- Commentary on the scope of the QSRA
- Notes on the method adopted so that the process and inputs are made clear
- List of participants and their involvement
- The results in graphical form and with written interpretation
- Recommended actions that should mitigate any concerns raised in order to deliver the most effective project possible
- Appendices of duration uncertainty is and the risk register, considered with details of the risk modeling – which risks allocated to which activities, distribution type, the minimum, maximum and most likely values
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